Civil War Soon? No, But Maybe Down the Line

An Assessment

Civil War Soon? No, But Maybe Down the Line

One of my Facebook friends recently asked me a question about the possibility of a violent national uprising or civil war in the US in the near future. It's a fair question. The US is a deeply divided country. If you look at the polls, though, people are interested in change and they do support not only Mr Trump’s efforts to deport illegals, but even narrowly advocate reductions in legal immigration.

In spite of some of Donald Trump’s recent missteps, like his unpopular bombing of Iran and his floating the idea of cutting back on deportations of certain categories of illegals, particularly those working in agriculture and the hotel/motel industry, he still has the confidence of the American people. If he continues to weaken his America First and anti-migrant principles, he does eventually risk alienating his base. Donald’s recent moronic statement that he gets to decide what America First means is certainly one of the most dumbass utterances ever made by an American president. The term goes back to, at least 1940, six years before Trump popped out of the womb.

One thing I am counting on and sincerely think is a real trend, is the radicalization of MAGA, particularly of the younger element. I think this will continue, even if Trump decides to retreat from his principles. I’m convinced that what people are calling the “vibe shift” is a real thing. Liberalism, both in its classical and progressive senses, is a dying idea and Europe and the US is, thankfully, giving up on the ‘two Johnnys” John Stewart Mill and John Locke.

How violent do I think the US political establishment will get with the American people? I really don’t know. The closest we ever got to Civil War since 1860 was in the wake of the 2020 stolen presidential election. Even in the sleepy, almost apolitical state where I live, there were at least seven large demonstrations outside the State House in our capital. The mass demonstrations of right-wingers frightened the hell out of the elites. Right-wing demos before then were usually attended by three men and a dog, I know because I used to be one of the three men! I think this is one of the reasons the establishment did not pull much in the way of shenanigans in the 2024 presidential contest. I think the only thing that could set off any violence would be if the establishment/deep-state makes some really dumb and ham-handed act that really angers people. It would be something, like perhaps when the czar’s troops shot and killed peaceful protesters petitioning the monarch for reforms in Russia in 1905. Until then, normal political stress will continue.